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Text 1
The Population Surprise
About the author:
Max Singer is an author and policy analyst. Through his firm,
The Potomac Organization, he consults and does public policy
research for business, government, and non-governmental organizations.
In 1961 he helped Herman Kahn establish Hudson Institute.
Recently Singer has consulted and written on issues of the
changing international order; economic development and long-term
environmental protection; public policy questions related
to the collapse of the Soviet Union; the uses of "informal"
data (or soft statistics); and other matters.
His book, The REAL World Order: Zones of Peace/Zones of Turmoil
(with Aaron Wildavsky), won the 1996 Grawemeyer Award for
Ideas Improving World Order. His articles have appeared in
publications such as: The Public Interest; Commentary; Reader's
Digest; The National Interest; The New Republic; and The New
York Times Sunday Magazine.
Singer was educated at Colby and Columbia Colleges, and holds
a Doctor of Jurisprudence from Harvard Law School.
About The United Nations Population Division:
The Population Division is responsible for monitoring and
appraisal of the broad range of areas in the field of population.
To carry out this responsibility, it:
* provides support and servicing of such intergovernmental
bodies as the Commission on Population and Development, as
well as related work of the General Assembly and the Economic
and Social Council, through the preparation of high-quality
documentation, analytical work and facilitation of
consensus-building and policy development.
* facilitates access by Governments to information on population
trends and their interrelationships with social and economic
development as an input to government policy and programme
formulation.
*contributes to the capacity building of Member States to
formulate national population and related policies and programmes
for the effective implementation of the recommendations of
the Programme of Action; and improves the institutional capabilities
of Governments for the collection, analysis and distribution
of national population information.
* enhances coordination and cooperation among the organizations
of the United Nations system through the Administrative Consultative
Committee Subcommittee on Demographic Estimates and Projections
and between the United Nations system and other international,
regional and national organizations active in the field of
population.
* distributes electronic population information in response
to requests and to support coordination among the United Nations
entities in the field of population.
Language notes:
1. The
big surprise of the past twenty years is that in not one country
did fertility stop falling when it reached the replacement
rate—2.1 children per woman.
(过去二十年最令人吃惊的事情是，没有一个国家当其出生率降到人口置换率水平时——每个妇女生育2.1个子女——就停止下降了。)
Note the inversion in the sentence.
Fertility here refers to fertility rate.
2. World
population was growing by two percent a year in the 1960s;
the rate is now down to one percent a year, and if the patterns
of the past century don't change radically, it will head into
negative numbers.
(在六十年代，世界人口每年只增长2%，现在这一比率已降到每年1%。而且要不是上个世纪[19世纪]生育模式发生了根本性变化的话，这将会导致人口的负增长。)
Head: move inevitably toward something.
e.g. The economy is heading for recession.
3. As
long ago as September of 1974 Scientific American published
a special issue on population that described what demographers
had begun calling the "demographic transition" from
traditional high rates of birth and death to the low ones
of modern society.
(早在1974年9月，《美国科学》杂志发行了一份人口研究专号，描述了人口学家所称的“人口过渡期”的情况，即从传统的高出生率和死亡率转到现代社会的低出生率和死亡率。)
Demographic: pertaining to the
statistical data of a population. esp.those showing average
age, income, education, etc.
4. The
experts' assumption that population would stabilize because
birth rates would stop falling once they matched the new low
death rates has not been borne out by experience.
(专家们推测出生率一旦同新的低死亡率达到平衡后就会停止衰减，所以人口能够保持稳定，这种推测没有得到经验的证实。)
Bear something out: support or confirm something.
e.g. This assumption is not borne out by any evidence.
5. In
the United States fertility has been falling for 200 years
(except for the blip of the Baby Boom), but partly because
of immigration it has stayed only slightly below replacement
level for twenty-five years.
(美国二百多年来生育率一直在下降[除了二战过后出现的短暂的生育高峰期]，但是在某种程度上受移民的影响，在25年里它只略低于人口置换率。)
Blip: an unexpected, minor, and typically temporary deviation
form a general trend.
e.g. The Chancellor dismissed the rising inflation as a temporary
blip.
6. World
population can be stable only if fertility rates around the
world average out to 2.1 children per woman.
(只有世界范围内的出生率能达到平均每位妇女生育2.1个子女，世界人口才可能稳定。)
Average our at/to: result in an average figure at.
e.g. The cost should average out at 6 pounds per page.
7. Much
bigger changes in share are possible for smaller groups if
they can maintain their difference from the average for a
long period of time.
(对于一些较小的人口群体来说，如果他们长时间内与平均出生率保持差距，那么他们所占世界人口的份额可能会产生更大的变化。)
Share: a part or portion in a large amount
e.g. We gave them all the chance to have a share in the profits.
8. If
they do, and fertility rates start to climb, fertility is
no more likely to stop climbing at an average rate of 2.1
children per woman than it was to stop falling at 2.1 on the
way down.
(如果是这样，那么出生率就会攀升。而且在达到每位女性生育2.1个子女这样一个平均水平后会停止上升的可能性并不比降到2.1后会停止下降的可能性大多少。)
Note the structure "no more ... than".
Text 2
"Suppose the Whole
World..."
About the author:
Issac Asimov (b. January 2, 1920, Petrovichi, Russia - d.
April 16, 1992, New York, N.Y., U.S.) American author and
biochemist, a highly successful and prolific writer of science
fiction and of science books for lay readers. Issac Asimov
published more than 300 volumes.
Issac Asimov began contributing stories to science fiction
magazines in 1939 and in 1950 published his first book, Pebble
in the Sky. His trilogy, Foundation, Foundation of Empire,
and Second Foundation(1951-53), which recounts the collapse
of an empire in the universe of the future won a Hugo award
in science fiction. Other novels and collections of stories
include I,Robot(1950), The Stars Like Dust (1951),
The Currents
of Space (1952), The Caves of Steel (1954), The Naked Sun
(1957), Earth Is Room Enough (1957), Foundation's Edge (1982),
The Robots of Dawn (1983), Prelude to Foundation (1988), and
the posthumously published Forward the Foundation (1993).
His "Nightfall" (1941) is thought by many to be
the finest science fiction short story ever written. His books
on various topics in science are written with lucidity and
humor.
Language notes:
1.A food-gathering world refers to the primitive world where people get the food from the wild without any agriculture.
2.Let
us suppose 20000000000 is the limit, then.
The limit refers to the limit of population
that our world can hold.
3.On
the other hand, the growth might rise even further.
Asimov uses the word “might” because it is
a supposition.
4.Since
each doubling, at a growth rate of 2.0 percent, takes thirty-five
years, altogether to reach the 15200000000 mark.
The word “mark” is used to show the point
reached.
5.Julius
Caesar:100-44 BC, Roman general, statesman and
historian.
6.Greenland:格陵兰岛
。
7.the
Netherlands: another name of Holland in the text.
8.Sahara:
撒哈拉沙漠。
9.In
that case, after thirty years, the average population density
of the less pleasant parts of the earth will reach the 19/km2
figure, but the density of the 11 000 000 square kilometers
of best land will be 400/km2.
Figure: means member.
10.We
might as well realize that the world is just about reaching
its population limit now.
Might as well: to have
no strong reason not to.
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