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The State of World Population
2001
Overview
Over three and a half million years ago, two
of modern humanity's ancestors left their footprints in the
sand near what is now Laetoli in the United Republic of Tanzania.
This couple was walking barefoot along a plain. Their people
probably numbered in the hundreds or thousands and possessed
very rudimentary implements. Only a remarkable chain of coincidences
preserved their trail for our current inspection and wonder.
Today the footprints of humanity are impossible to miss. Human
activity has affected every part of the planet, no matter
how remote, and every ecosystem, from the simplest to the
most complex. Our choices and interventions have transformed
the natural world, posing both great possibilities and extreme
dangers for the quality and sustainability of our civilizations,
and for the intricate balances of nature.
Our numbers have doubled since 1960 to 6.1 billion, with growth
mostly in poorer countries. Consumption expenditures have
more than doubled since 1970, with increases mostly in richer
countries. During this time, we have created wealth on an
unimaginable scale, yet half the world still exists on less
than $2 a day. We have learned how to extract resources for
our use, but not how to deal with the resulting waste: emissions
of carbon dioxide, for example, grew 12 times between 1900
and 2000. In the process we are changing the world's climate.
The great questions for the 21st century are whether the activities
of the 20th century have set us on a collision course with
the environment, and if so, what can we do about it? Human
ingenuity has brought us this far. How can we apply it to
the future so as to ensure the well-being of human populations,
and still protect the natural world?
The stewardship of the planet and the well-being of its people
are a collective responsibility. Everywhere we face critical
decisions. Some are about how to protect and promote fundamental
values such as the right to health and human dignity. Others
reflect trade-offs between available options, or the desire
to broaden the range of choice. We need to think carefully
but urgently about what the choices are, and to take every
action that will broaden choices and extend the time in which
to understand their implications.
Today every part of the natural and human world is linked
to every other. Local decisions have a global impact. Global
policy, or the lack of it, affects local communities and the
conditions in which they live. Humans have always changed
and been changed by the natural world; the prospects for human
development now depend on our wisdom in managing the relationship.
One of the key factors will be population. It is also one
of the areas where action to broaden choices is universally
available, affordable and agreed upon.
The Connections
Population and the environment are closely related, but the
links between them are complex and varied, and depend on specific
circumstances. Generalizations about the negative effects
of population growth on the environment are often misleading.
Population scientists long ago abandoned such an approach,
yet policy in some cases still proceeds as if it were a reality.1
As human populations increase and globalization proceeds,
key policy questions are: how to use available resources of
land and water to produce food for all; how to promote economic
development and end poverty so that all can afford to eat;
and, in doing so how to address the human and environmental
consequences of industrialization and concerns like global
warming, climate change and the loss of biological diversity.
Environmental devastation is not simply a waste of resources;
it is a threat to the complex structures that support human development.
Understanding the ways in which population and environment are linked requires detailed consideration of the way in which
factors interrelate, including affluence, consumption, technology
and population growth, but also previously ignored or underrated
social concerns such as gender roles and relations, political
structures, and governance at all levels.
The relationships among environment, population and social
development are increasingly better understood. There is broad
agreement on means and ends. Women's empowerment, for example,
is a development end in itself. Removing the obstacles to
women's exercise of economic and political power is also one
of the means to end poverty.
Reproductive health is part of an essential package of health
care and education. It is a means to the goal of women's empowerment,
but it is also a human right and includes the right to choose
the size and spacing of the family. Achieving equal status
between men and women, guaranteeing the right to reproductive
health, and ensuring that individuals and couples can make
their own choices about family size will also help to slow
population growth rates and reduce the future size of world
population.
Among other things, slower population growth in developing
countries will contribute measurably towards relieving environmental
stress.
Demographic Challenges and Opportunities
Changes in the size, rate of growth and distribution
of human populations have a broad impact on the environment
and on development prospects. A variety of demographic changes
in different areas provide new challenges and opportunities.
Population and fertility trends
Fertility is highest in the poorest countries and among the
poorest people in these countries. Failures in health, education
and other services, especially for women, contribute to poverty
in these countries. Reproductive health services cannot meet
even the existing needs of women who want to prevent or delay
pregnancy, and demand is expected to increase rapidly in the
next 20 years. Maternal mortality is high and rates of contraceptive
use low (often less than 15 per cent of all couples).
These countries are also among the most severely challenged
by soil and water degradation, and the most severely affected
by food deficits. In some ecologically rich but fragile zones,
known as "biodiversity hotspots", population growth
is well above the global average of 1.3 per cent a year.3
Rising demand from more affluent areas adds to the pressures
on natural resources in these ecosystems.
The good news is that fertility in developing countries as
a whole has dropped to just under three children per woman,
about half what it was in 1969, and the expectation is that
it will fall further, to 2.17 children per woman by 2045-2050.
At the same time, global life expectancy has increased to
an average of 66 (up from 46 in 1950), and-outside the areas
worst affected by HIV/AIDS-people are healthier throughout
the life cycle than at any time in history.4 The AIDS pandemic will have severe demographic effects. By
2015, life expectancy in the worst affected countries will
be 60, five years lower than it would be in the absence of
AIDS.
In some countries, including Mexico and parts of South-East
Asia, fertility has fallen very sharply over the past generation,
creating the "demographic bonus" of a large generation
of 15-24 year-olds ready to enter the workforce, without the
pressure of an equally large generation of children behind
them. These countries can also expect a rapidly growing generation
of older people, but the demographic bonus offers the opportunity
for preparation to meet their needs. Countries where fertility
is still high and life expectancy is increasing have no such
opportunity. Globally, there are over 1 billion young people
between 15 and 24.
Box 1: Population Growing Fastest Where Needs Are Greatest
In industrial countries, fertility is now 1.6 children per
woman, below replacement level.5 Their populations are rapidly
ageing, and in some countries might actually shrink unless
supplemented by migration. The downward trend in fertility
is well established. However, recent studies in the United
Kingdom show that family size in some low-income families
is smaller than the parents desire.
The vast bulk of consumption is in the industrial countries,
but it is rising fast elsewhere as incomes grow. Measures
to conserve energy, curb pollution and promote sustainable
use of natural resources are essential for sustainable development
in the future.
Parallel measures are needed to stabilize global population
growth. Whether world population in 2050 reaches the high
projection of 10.9 billion, the low of 7.9 billion or the
medium projection of 9.3 billion will depend on choices and
commitments in the coming years. Two actions are central:
first, ensuring that the right to education and health, including
reproductive health, becomes a reality for all women; and
second, bringing an end to the absolute poverty that affects
the 1.2 billion people who live on less than $1 a day. These
two aims are closely linked because most of the absolutely
poor are female; action towards one will reinforce the other.
Governments, international donors, civil society and, in many
cases, the private sector all have important roles to play
in achieving these goals and creating a virtuous circle of
smaller, healthier families, healthier and better-educated
children with expanded opportunities, and increased progress
towards population stabilization and environmental sustainability.
Milestones
In the past decade we have learned more about the deepening
ecological footprint resulting from the growth of human numbers,
changing population distributions and unsustainable consumption
and production patterns. The stark challenges to sustainable
development have become clearer. At the same time, there are
some important signs of positive change, including a growing
international consensus on actions to promote development
while protecting the environment.
Important milestones in this regard are the agreements of
the United Nations conferences of the 1990s. The United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), held in
Rio de Janeiro in 1992, was one such milestone. The international
community recognized that environmental protection and natural
resource management had to be integrated with action to alleviate
poverty and underdevelopment.
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